US President Donald Trump meets Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on May 6 in the Oval Office in Washington, DC [Evan Vucci/AP Photo]
After three months of governing, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership deserves scrutiny. He promised that he, and only he, could stand up and deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. That remains very much in question as the Aug. 1 deadline for a trade agreement with the United States has passed. While the summer may be a sleepy period for politics, and Carney’s Liberals are scoring well in the polls, danger signs lurk. Carney’s popularity is holding steady between 52 and 57 per cent. That’s lower than previous leaders at a similar point, with his predecessor at 62 per cent and Stephen Harper at 61 per cent.
According to Innovative Research, 56 per cent of Canadians are optimistic about the direction Carney is taking the country. However, a closer look reveals 17 per cent in firm agreement and 39 per cent in some agreement. Right as Carney gears up to renege on a major promise and botch a trade agreement with the Americans. And, as Wyatt Claypool points out on the National Telegraph, Carney’s major accomplishment to date, Bill C-5, designed to push major projects ahead, looks to be losing steam.
April’s election had some strange results. Claypool points out that the Liberal voters were primarily women, older, and from the Eastern part of Canada. Conservative voters were under 45, men, and from the West. Young, urban, and single women formed the NDP’s base. Carney’s lead over the Conservatives is only five points after a brief period in power, a slim advantage given his current strengths. He appears to be stalling rather than accelerating. With Trump in Washington, Carney should be pulling away. Instead, he looks like another ordinary Liberal prime minister puttering along if he doesn’t get a deal done soon, dithering away opportunities and wasting Canada’s precious resources because our uniquely Canadian virtue does not allow development. That will not sail with many families expecting jobs, better prices, and an improved economic outlook. Before he took the job as Liberal leader and prime minister, he could have anticipated these quagmires and had some strategies. As flat-footed as he appears, it could be worse.
Thanks for reading David’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Some of his most important ministers have gathered in Washington to help nurse an agreement through. Mexico has one without threatening retaliatory tariffs. If Canada remains stays the course, Canadian workers, companies, and families will lose jobs. Some media outlets report the tariffs as exaggerated and applying to a small percentage of goods, possibly as small as five per cent of products affected. They have convinced themselves that Trump overstates his position, that Canada sits in the catbird seat, and that after a good thrashing Trump will see he must surrender to Canada and return trade practices to the status quo. Regardless of one’s feelings about Trump, jobs, economic prosperity, and future growth depend on negotiating mutually beneficial deals. In addition, the United States pays our security costs and has a president who keeps track of these details.
Carney will continue to enjoy vigorous support, but it comes at a cost and will erode. And while many in the dominant media enjoy reporting that the tariffs remain zero to minimal on many products, that does not account for other costs. Following tariff regulations means more documentation and increased costs to prove that goods are from Canada and made in Canada. Providing proof that labour costs are Canadian goes along with these expectations. If these author three to five per cent cost increases, it wipes out Carney’s tax break. Insisting on protecting supply management provides a Pyrrhic victory. There will be no elbowing our way out of this mess. Carney should use what he has on hand, not what he hopes will work. Trump faces Congressional races next fall. Leverage those to help Trump understand the threat that tariffs could mean for him and his party. Carney does not have the hand he thinks, but he has enough to ensure Canada gets a deal that ensures our economic and political independence.
Whether people are aware of it or not, Canada’s future is at stake. Most Canadian media outlets remain secure in believing that Carney, the Canadian government, and some level of international order can deter Trump from pressuring. Trump does not need or want Canada’s political headaches. He seeks access to our resources and fair trade with our markets. Carney can either make the best deal possible or face what could turn into national humiliation. Trump and American industry could squeeze Canada if the Carney government puts up too many obstacles. A failing economy, empty shelves, and higher prices will inevitably lead to a worse outcome. For all the brave talk, Carney and his cabinet will have to yield to Trump now or face a greater disaster later. Canadians may want to brace for important concessions from the formerly confident Carney administration. As the mechanic once proclaimed in the old Fram oil filters commercial, “Pay me now, or pay me later.”
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
Great piece Dave, but I have this twist given Carney's actions: "Canadians are paying now - and later."